How close are 21 countries to economic collapse?

The nations nearing the tipping point

Government debt is soaring around the world. One much-cited study found that, historically, 51 of 52 countries whose public debt exceeded 130% of GDP went on to default, undergo painful debt restructuring, devalue their currencies or endure excessively high inflation.

But does crossing 130% really spell disaster? And which major economies are heading towards the danger zone fastest?

Click or scroll on as we compare debt levels and trajectories around the world, reveal the nations most at risk, and explain why highly-indebted Singapore and Japan have so far managed to defy the usual rules.

All dollar amounts in US dollars.

The 130% danger zone

How much debt is too much? In 2020, research by US investment firm Hirschmann Capital identified a striking historical pattern. Looking back to 1800, it found 52 cases where a country's gross debt exceeded 130% of GDP. In 51 cases, the country subsequently defaulted in one form or another.

That doesn't necessarily mean governments simply stopped paying their bills. The study's definition of default also includes debt restructuring, currency devaluation and high inflation. But every case led to some form of major financial crisis or collapse. Japan was the sole country to escape any of them.

The damage can start much earlier

Economic trouble can begin long before debt reaches 130% of GDP. In 2010, the World Bank identified a threshold of around 77%. Beyond that level, rising public debt was associated with slower economic growth.

But the headline ratio isn't everything. A select few countries can get away with vastly elevated debt ratios that would tank lesser economies.

The debt ratio can be deceptive

A nation with relatively low debt but weak growth, high borrowing costs and a poor credit rating could therefore be in significantly worse shape than one with a much higher ratio but stronger finances and greater investor confidence.

With that in mind, all 21 countries featured here have high debt-to-GDP ratios, but some are in far better fiscal health than others. Their debt burdens, recent trajectories and wider economic wellbeing paint very different pictures of how close they may be to financial meltdown.

Argentina debt: 78% of GDP

Argentina only just clears the 77% threshold identified by the World Bank study, with government debt equal to 78% of GDP at the end of 2025. On a positive note, that was down from 83% a year earlier, with the ratio on a downward trajectory.

But Argentina is hardly a picture of financial security. Inflation has remained above 30% in 2026, the country is still heavily indebted to the IMF and its long history of sovereign defaults shows why the headline debt ratio can be deceptive. Recent fiscal reforms have improved the outlook somewhat, but the country remains an economic basket case.

South Africa debt: 79% of GDP

South Africa is also slightly above the 77% threshold, with government debt equal to 79% of GDP in 2025, up from 77% a year earlier. The ratio is forecast to keep rising, reaching around 82% by 2028.

The country isn't close to economic catastrophe but its finances are under pressure. The The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects growth of just 1.4% in 2026 and says public debt will continue rising over the medium term, while persistent budget deficits leave little room for error. Still, inflation has eased, the banking system remains sound and the economy has so far proved resilient.

India debt: 82% of GDP

India's government debt stood at 82% of GDP in the 2025/26 fiscal year, putting it comfortably above the 77% threshold. Fortunately, the IMF projects general government debt to fall gradually over the coming years, helped by strong economic growth and continued fiscal consolidation.

Adding to the good news, over 95% of the nation's debt is held domestically and has a long maturity, reducing the risk of a sudden funding crisis. India therefore looks a long way from economic collapse despite its elevated ratio.

Egypt debt: 84% of GDP

Egypt's government debt stood at 84% of GDP in 2025, up from 83% a year earlier. Unlike India, its debt burden is creeping up again after a drop in 2024.

While Egypt isn't on the verge of economic catastrophe, its finances are much more strained than the headline ratio alone suggests. Inflation remains high, interest rates are elevated and the country still owes substantial sums to the IMF. Growth, however, is relatively robust.

Finland debt: 89% of GDP

Finland's public debt jumped from 82% of GDP in 2024 to a record 89% in 2025. The IMF expects the ratio to keep climbing, reaching around 95% by the end of the decade.

Even so, Finland is miles away from economic breakdown. Inflation is close to 2%, the banking system remains strong and growth is expected to pick up in 2026. The concern is mainly fiscal: weak recent growth and persistent deficits have pushed debt steadily higher, meaning further consolidation will be needed to reverse the trend.

Portugal debt: 90% of GDP

After peaking at 134% of GDP during the pandemic in 2020, Portugal's government debt had fallen to 90% by 2025, down from 94% a year earlier. The IMF expects the decline to continue, with the figure poised to drop to 86% in 2026 and 79% by 2028.

That makes Portugal one of the healthier countries on this list despite its still-elevated ratio. The IMF notes that growth has remained above the eurozone average and the budget recorded a surplus for the third straight year in 2025. Inflation however has crept up of late due to higher fuel and energy prices.

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UK debt: 94% of GDP

UK public debt reached 94% of GDP in 2025, up from 93% a year earlier. The ratio is expected to remain around this level over the medium term, although rising interest costs and spending pressures are making the public finances harder to manage.

Yet the UK remains on solid enough economic footing. The IMF describes the economy and financial system as resilient, despite headwinds such as the Iran war, which has resulted in higher oil prices and muted growth.

China debt: 99% of GDP

At unprecedented levels, China's government debt leapt from 90% of GDP in 2024 to a record 99% last year, meaning the country is now brushing up against the 100% mark. More importantly, the IMF expects the debt burden to continue growing over the coming years.

That rise matters because China is also grappling with a prolonged property downturn, heavy local government debt and a rapidly ageing population, which threaten future growth and tax revenues. The country is still far from collapse, but its debt problem is getting harder to manage.

Spain debt: 101% of GDP

At the end of 2025, Spain's debt burden remained high at just over 100% of GDP, but the trend is moving in the right direction. The ratio stood at over 119% during the pandemic peak in 2020, while the IMF expects it to drop below 95% by 2028. The number is already below 100%, recent reports say.

That improving trajectory is backed by relatively strong growth and a shrinking budget deficit. Spain continues to outperform the euro area and is set to record decent growth of 2.1% in 2026.

Ukraine debt: 101% of GDP

War has transformed Ukraine's finances. Public debt reached 101% of GDP in 2025, up from 91% a year earlier. By contrast, Russia's government debt stood at just 18% of GDP, despite its own economy facing sanctions, weak growth and other major hurdles.

Ukraine's debt position is much more precarious. The IMF still judges it unsustainable without further restructuring and stresses that continued foreign support is essential. Even so, Ukraine has maintained broad macroeconomic and financial stability under wartime conditions, making this a case of severe fiscal stress rather than outright economic collapse.

Belgium debt: 108% of GDP

Belgium's debt burden rose from 104% of GDP in 2024 to 108% in 2025, and the IMF expects it to keep climbing, reaching about 121% by 2031.

Belgium isn't facing an immediate debt crisis. The IMF rates the risk of sovereign stress as moderate. But persistent budget deficits, ageing-related costs, higher defence spending and rising interest payments are all adding pressure. Without tougher action, today's slow debt drift could spell serious trouble in the decades ahead.

Canada debt: 114% of GDP

Canada's gross government debt rose from 110% of GDP in 2024 to 114% in 2025. But the headline figure is deceptive: the country also holds vast financial assets, leaving net debt at only 10% of GDP, the lowest in the G7.

That puts Canada in a much stronger position than many economies with similar gross debt ratios. But although the nation's finances remain strong, the trade war with the US is weighing on growth and investment, with weak productivity and high household debt other causes for concern.

France debt: 116% of GDP

France's debt problem is getting harder to ignore as it becomes increasingly unsustainable. Public debt climbed to 116% of GDP in 2025 and has since reached 119%. Borrowing costs have also surged, with 10-year yields recently touching 5%, their highest level since 2002.

The government already spends heavily on public services and welfare, yet cutting back is proving especially fraught in a country where citizens take to the streets at any hint of cuts. Needless to say, the mass youth protests and riots have upped to the pressure, while political deadlock threatens efforts to rein in the deficit.

USA debt: 123% of GDP

The US national debt stood at 123% of GDP in 2025 and has already climbed to around 126% in 2026. The total debt pile now exceeds $40 trillion (£30.3tn), while interest payments alone are running at roughly $1 trillion (£757bn) a year.

The US still benefits enormously from the dollar's reserve currency status and deep financial markets, but Washington continues to borrow heavily. Legislation enacted during President Trump's second term is expected to add trillions to future deficits, while the IMF sees the debt ratio continuing to climb. America is nowhere near economic collapse, but the fiscal outlook is getting increasingly uncomfortable.

Italy debt: 137% of GDP

Italy has already crossed the 130% danger threshold, with government debt at around 137% of GDP in 2025. The ratio is expected to stay broadly elevated over the coming years, while sluggish growth and an ageing population make reducing it particularly challenging.

Yet Italy is not on the brink of financial Armageddon. Its banks are stronger than during the eurozone debt crisis, borrowing costs remain manageable and much of the debt is held domestically. The bigger problem is stagnation: with weak productivity and limited growth, Italy has precious little room to absorb another major shock.

Lebanon debt: 139% of GDP

Lebanon's debt-to-GDP ratio fell from 160% in 2024 to 139% in 2025 but, having defaulted on its sovereign debt in 2020, the country remains in severe financial distress. Its banking system subsequently collapsed, leaving depositors locked out of much of their savings.

The conflict with Israel has since inflicted further damage, and the Lebanese economy is projected to contract by a painful 6.4% this year, according to the World Bank. With the financial system in dire straits, Lebanon is already living with many of the consequences of being in a fiscal black hole.

Greece debt: 146% of GDP

Greece still carries one of the world's heaviest debt burdens, but the direction of travel is strikingly positive. Public debt fell from 154% of GDP in 2024 to 146% in 2025, down from more than 209% at the pandemic peak. The IMF expects it to fall to around 137% in 2026 and 130% in 2027.

In a turnaround dubbed 'the Grecovery', the once-beleaguered country is bouncing back and then some. In addition to regaining investment grade status, it now runs a sizeable primary budget surplus and benefits from unusually long debt maturities and low fixed rates on much of its official borrowing.

Singapore debt: 171% of GDP

Singapore's government debt stood at a staggering 171% of GDP in 2025, but the figure has been described as comically misleading. Most government borrowing isn't used to fund day-to-day spending. Instead, much of the debt is issued to support the domestic bond market, invest pension savings and manage the country's vast reserves.

Crucially, Singapore has no net government debt because its financial assets comfortably exceed its liabilities. It also retains stellar AAA credit ratings from all three major agencies. So, despite having one of the highest gross debt ratios on this list, Singapore is among the countries least likely to face a debt crisis.

Sudan debt: 188% of GDP

Sudan's government debt stood at 188% of GDP in 2025, down sharply from 263% a year earlier. But that fall is no sign of economic health. Civil war has devastated the country, with GDP contracting by almost 30% in 2023 and another 14% in 2024.

By 2026, the Sudanese pound was collapsing again, prices were soaring and huge parts of the productive economy had been destroyed or cut off from government control. Sudan isn't simply approaching economic collapse. It's already living through one.

Japan debt: 249% of GDP

Japan's government debt stood at an extraordinary 249% of GDP in 2025, making it by far the most indebted major economy. Yet it was also the sole exception identified by the Hirschmann study, having sustained debt above 130% without defaulting in one way or another.

A deep domestic savings pool, huge Bank of Japan bond holdings and the ability to borrow in its own currency have helped make that possible. But the cushion is getting thinner. Interest costs are rising, the population is ageing fast and bond yields have surged as the Bank of Japan retreats from ultra-loose policy. Japan remains stable, but its debt burden is becoming harder to shrug off.

Venezuela debt: 309% of GDP

Venezuela has the world's highest government debt burden, at an extraordinary 309% of GDP in 2025. That was up from 169% a year earlier and only slightly below its 2020 peak of 337%.

Venezuela has already endured sovereign default, hyperinflation and a devastating economic collapse. But President Maduro's removal by US forces in January has opened a new chapter, with the Trump administration now backing efforts to restructure up to $200 billion (£152bn) in liabilities and reconnect the country with international lenders. Whether that can translate into a lasting recovery remains far from certain though.

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