Is America Getting Richer or Poorer Than Other Wealthy Nations?

Find out which wealthy nations are set to suffer the most economic pain

Not out of the woods just yet, the global economy faces a painfully slow recovery according to the latest outlook from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), which is fittingly entitled A Long Unwinding Road.

Based on the OECD's June 2023 outlook, read on to discover how 30 of the world's wealthiest nations are expected to fare this year in terms of GDP growth, from the best to worst performers.

Iceland, 2023 GDP growth: 4.4%

The joint fastest-growing of the 38 OECD economies – basically the world's high-income countries – Iceland is expected to see GDP growth of 4.4% this year.

The forecast has been massively hiked by the OECD, which in its previous outlook published last November pegged the nation's 2023 growth at just 2.5%. Some challenges remain, from slowing investment to rising unemployment, but the housing market is turning out healthier than expected, hence the upgrade.

Ireland, 2023 GDP growth: 4.4%

Ireland is the other fastest-growing OECD economy this year. The November outlook expected 4.4% growth for 2023 and the forecast is unchanged.

While doggedly high inflation won't be going away any time soon, consumer spending is likely to be robust, helped along by stellar jobs growth and bumper tourist receipts. Nevertheless, the 4.4% forecast is quite the comedown from 2022, when pent-up pandemic demand helped propel Ireland's growth to a showstopping 12%. 

Türkiye, 2023 GDP growth: 3.6%

The OECD has upgraded Türkiye's GDP growth forecast for 2023 from 3% to 3.6%. The devastating earthquake that hit the south of the country earlier this year has led to a construction boom, which is offsetting the disaster's economic damage and boosting the nation's economy overall.

And while inflation is set to remain at over 40%, driven in a major way by the unorthodox monetary policy of the recently re-elected President Erdoğan, wages are poised to grow rapidly, fueling domestic demand and mitigating headwinds such as weaker exports.

Israel, 2023 GDP growth: 2.9%

Israel's growth prediction for this year has been upped slightly from 2.8% to 2.9%. Like the majority of countries, the Middle Eastern nation is grappling with high inflation and its various economic impacts, from higher interest rates to lower investment and flagging consumer demand.

Still, the country is coping better than most and, though economic activity is calming, it remains at levels many other economies could only dream of right now.

Portugal, 2023 GDP growth: 2.5%

This year is shaping up to be much better than expected for Portugal's economy.

Last November, the OECD projected just 1% growth for the country in 2023, but the most recent outlook has revised the figure to 2.5%. The improved forecast is chiefly thanks to European Union (EU) Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) spending, generous fiscal support measures, and an upswing in foreign trade.

Greece, 2023 growth: 2.2%

The Greek economy is also benefiting from the EU's RRF package, and the stimulus is likely behind the OECD's decision to upgrade Greece's growth forecast for this year from 1.6% to 2.2%.

In spite of inflation and interest rate pressures, which are projected to erode wages and consumer spending in 2023, and slow employment growth, the country's economy remains relatively solid.

Spain, 2023 GDP growth: 2.1%

Spain has had its growth projection for 2023 upgraded too, even more so in a relative sense as the figure has been upped from 1.3% to 2.1%.

Surprising the OECD it seems, the Spanish economy has been remarkably resilient in the face of high inflation, high interest rates, and other obstacles to growth. And with headline inflation falling, consumer confidence growing and other indicators looking healthy, it's no wonder the OECD has lifted its forecast.

Australia, 2023 GDP growth: 1.8%

In its latest report, the OECD has shaved a tenth of a percentage point off Australia's GDP growth forecast for 2023. A poorer outlook for wages keeping up with inflation is the probable culprit.

On the positive side, inflation is projected to ease during the course of the year and commodities exports are expected to increase, providing something of a windfall. While prices for Australia's iron ore, coal, nickel, and other commodities have fallen recently, they remain well above pre-COVID levels. 

USA, 2023 GDP growth: 1.6%

The OECD's outlook for the US economy in 2023 has become brighter since last November, with its growth prediction for this year up from 0.5% to 1.6%.

Increased trade with China and falling energy prices are among the factors contributing to a more optimistic forecast. Be that as it may, high inflation and hefty interest rates will no doubt drag on the economy, while unemployment is expected to rise in the coming months. 

South Korea, 2023 GDP growth: 1.5%

High inflation, together with weak disposable income growth, is hindering household consumption in South Korea. Demand for the country's exports, particularly semiconductors, has also declined from its recent peak. This, coupled with a stagnant housing market and rising levels of unemployment, is holding back GDP growth this year with the rate expected to fall to 1.5%. That's a dip from 2.7% in 2022 and a downgrade from the 1.8% forecast in the OECD's November outlook.

Canada, 2023 GDP growth: 1.4%

Canada is one of the countries that has had its 2023 GDP growth forecast increased, from 1% to 1.4% in its case.

While lower prices for the nation's energy exports are impacting growth, which is being further impeded by high borrowing costs, the Canadian economy did better than expected during the first quarter of this year, with growth in sectors such as manufacturing and construction, and resilient retail demand despite high inflation.

Japan, 2023 GDP growth: 1.3%

On the flip side, Japan has had its projection slashed from 1.8% to 1.3%. Weaker than anticipated external demand is dampening export activity, with domestic demand the principal growth driver.

Though inflation is predicted to remain high and wage growth looks weak, consumer spending is likely to hold up, while fat government subsidies will stimulate business investment.

Italy, 2023 GDP growth: 1.2%

The Italian economy defied expectations and grew by 0.6% in the first quarter of 2023 as lower energy prices and a dynamic jobs market worked their magic.

As a result, the OECD has revised up its 2023 GDP growth forecast for Italy by a full percentage point from 0.2% to 1.2%. The bad news is the Italian economy still has plenty of headwinds to contend with, including slow wage growth and tighter financial conditions.

Norway, 2023 GDP growth: 1.2%

High inflation and the resulting tightening of monetary policy are tempering consumer demand in Norway. Lower energy prices are countering this but they're something of a double-edged sword for the country, which is a major oil and gas exporter, and is therefore losing money as a result.

In any case, the outlook for mainland Norway has improved, with the OECD GDP growth prediction for 2023 at 1.2%, up from November's forecast of 0.7%.

New Zealand, 2023 GDP growth: 1%

The OECD remains just as pessimistic about New Zealand's economy as it was last November, with the predicted growth figure for 2023 unchanged at a measly 1%.

High inflation, punishing interest rates and rising unemployment, as well as factors such as the flagging housing market, are doing New Zealand's economy zero favors and are likely to persist for some time yet.

Belgium, 2023 GDP growth: 0.9%

In contrast, Belgium's GDP forecast for 2023 has been raised from 0.5% to 0.9%.

Steady public investment, strong labor demand and the automatic indexing of wages to inflation are proving to be lifelines for the country's sluggish economy, which is being hit by skyrocketing prices, jacked-up interest rates, and an elevated level of uncertainty.

Netherlands, 2023 GDP growth: 0.9%

The Dutch economy is expected to grow by 0.9% too in 2023, a marginal improvement on the previous OECD forecast, which anticipated growth of 0.8%.

Reflecting the situation in many countries around the world, headline inflation is dropping in the Netherlands, but core inflation is expected to remain high, and the nation has a large serving of other economic problems on its plate, including a slumping housing market.

Poland, 2023 GDP growth: 0.9%

The OECD has maintained its forecast of lackluster 0.9% GDP growth for Poland this year. As well as being on the sharp end of the war in Ukraine, the Eastern European country is vying with that all-too-familiar growth-busting triple whammy of high inflation, high interest rates, and high economic uncertainty.

But it's not all doom and gloom, with EU RRF money and recent improvements in consumer and business confidence among the positives.

France, 2023 GDP growth: 0.8%

The war in Ukraine, disruption to supply chains, and mushrooming energy prices have hammered the French economy, but the recent fall in the cost of oil, gas, and other commodities is easing some of the pain.

This is mirrored in the OECD's revised outlook, which pegs France's GDP growth rate in 2023 at 0.8%, up from the 0.6% it predicted last November.

Luxembourg, 2023 GDP growth: 0.8%

The richest OECD economy in terms of GDP per capita contracted sharply at the end of last year, which may explain the OECD's downgrade of Luxembourg's 2023 GDP growth prospects from 1.5% to 0.8%.

Impacted by tighter financial conditions, the country's financial and insurance industries, key drivers of its economy, aren't in the best of shape, while its housing market is due a correction that could sap consumer spending.

Denmark, 2023 GDP growth: 0.7%

Denmark's economic prospects for 2023 have improved since November when its growth for the year was estimated by the OECD at a minuscule 0.1%.

The Nordic nation's vigorous employment market and high personal savings levels are going some way towards counteracting the multitude of economic obstacles it's facing, which include the usual suspects of high borrowing costs and high business uncertainty.

Switzerland, 2023 GDP growth: 0.6%

The OECD is standing by the prediction of 0.6% growth for Switzerland in 2023 that it made in November.

The disappointing figure can be explained by the combination of high inflation, tight financial conditions and poor business confidence gripping the affluent country, as well as weaker demand for Switzerland's exports, many of which fall into the luxury category.

Czech Republic, 2023 GDP growth: 0.3%

Pummeled by high energy prices, tight financial conditions, and a great deal of uncertainty, the Czech economy was in the midst of recession last November when the OECD predicted it would contract this year by 0.1%.

With headline inflation easing and exports together with consumer confidence recovering better than projected, the OECD now expects the country's economy to grow by 0.3%, though this figure is certainly nothing to celebrate.

South Africa, 2023 GDP growth: 0.3%

On top of wrestling with high inflation and OTT interest rates, South Africa's economy is being clobbered by the unprecedented 'load-shedding' energy crisis plaguing the country, which is disrupting exports and sapping growth like no tomorrow.

As a consequence, the OECD has downgraded its 2023 growth prediction for the Rainbow Nation from 1.1% to 0.3%.

UK, 2023 GDP growth: 0.3%

The UK continues to endure high inflation, elevated interest rates, and relatively poor wage growth, but falling wholesale energy prices and the appreciation of sterling against the US dollar and euro over the past few months are dulling the pain and supporting growth.

Presumably, these saving graces are behind the OECD's move to upgrade the UK's growth forecast for 2023 from -0.4% to 0.3%.

Austria, 2023 GDP growth: 0.2%

Austria has had its growth prediction for 2023 lifted slightly by the OECD, from 0.1% to 0.2%, possibly because of falling headline inflation.

The other key indicators aren't looking rosy however, and given the prevalence of variable-rate mortgages and loans in the country, high interest rates are hurting many and leading to a downturn in consumer spending and property prices. 

Finland, 2023 GDP growth: 0%

Back in November, an energy crisis brought about by Putin's invasion of Ukraine was threatening to hit the Finnish economy, with the OECD's 2023 growth prediction of -0.3% reflecting the concern. 

Thankfully, the worst was averted by the mild winter along with falling energy prices and Finland's embattled economy, which is still having to face down high inflation and interest rates, falling house prices, and other woes, is now expected to merely stagnate rather than contract this year.

Germany, 2023 GDP growth: 0%

It's a similar story in Germany. Though the country's economy plunged into recession over the winter as soaring inflation and low wage growth eroded consumer spending, the clement weather and drop in energy prices did take the edge off.

With manufacturing picking up, the OECD has upgraded Germany's 2023 growth forecast from -0.3% to 0%, with the country returning to growth in 2024.

Sweden, 2023 GDP growth: -0.3%

The worst-performing OECD economy in 2023, Sweden is the only nation in the grouping expected to enter recession this year, with a contraction of 0.3% on the cards, though this is an improvement on the OECD's November prediction of -0.6%.

High inflation and interest rates are crashing the country's housing market since so many Swedish homeowners are reliant on variable-rate mortgages. Consumer spending has tanked, unemployment is rising, and the Swedish krona has tumbled in value against the US dollar and euro.

Russia, 2023 GDP growth: -1.5%

Russia's invasion of Ukraine is costing the country dearly. On top of the outrageous expense of the conflict, harsh Western sanctions and severe trade disruption are pounding the country's economy.

That said, energy exports to the likes of China, India, and Pakistan have been propping up the warmongering nation's finances, which is probably the reason the OECD now expects the Russian economy to shrink by just 1.5% this year instead of contracting 5.6% as it predicted in November.

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